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marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
615 PM PST Tue 6 Jan 2009
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Eve update...18z runs of GFS/NAM compare well with prev fcst and
12z gdnc. No major changes planned to wrngs in update. 18z
GFS/NAM with support from the 12z CMC/UK show more progressive
pattern Sat/sun than 12z ec...which matches well with prev fcst.
Seas...18z run of ww3 is still 2-5 ft too high over the nrn
zones at 00z. Will trend down seas in the short term and then
follow gdnc closely thereafter.
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Previous discussion
Ship pfdw nr 45n136w rptng 35 kt and buoy 46036 rptng gusts to
35 kt last hr in the swly flow ahead of an approaching cold
front. Ltst Quikscat pass does indicate a few areas of gales in
a large swath of 30 kt winds ahead of the front. Global models
continue to indicate these gales continuing tonight into Wed as
the front moves across the pz5 waters. Will continue with
current gale warnings for the pz5 waters. Will also keep gale
force winds in the NW portion of the nrn calif waters Wed night
as the front approaches...altho not as confident with these
gales as with the gales in the pz5 waters.
Global models continue to indicate psblty of gales in the WA
waters Thu into Thu night behind a low pres trof. GFS looks to
be trending a tad weaker with the nwly flow behind the trof but
still does indicate a few gales. ECMWF continues to indicate
psbl gales behind the trof and will continue this trend in the
next pacakge.
GFS indicating gales dvlpg in the WA waters on Sat ahead of the
next cold front to affect the region. This is supported by the
UKMET. The ECMWF also does hint at psbl gales Sat...but is a bit
slower with the progression of the front than the GFS and UKMET.
Will go ahead and bump up winds to gale force in the WA waters
Sat ahead of the front.
Strong high pres builds in behind the front sun and interacts
with thermal trof along the nrn and cntrl calif coast. Global
models currently indicating only 30 kt Max winds attm associated
with this pattern and will keep winds subgale in the next
package.
Seas...ww3 still about 2 to 4 ft overdone with the seas in the
pz5 and nrn pz6 waters according to ltst sfc obs. Buoy
46005...which is adrift nr 44n127w and buoy 46002 rptng 13 ft
last hour. Model is currently showing 16 to 17 ft in that
region. Also model value of 14 ft nr buoy 46059 is 4 ft above
what the buoy was indicating..10 ft...last hr. Will need to make
some adjustments to reflect initial conditions. As for the
coastal waters...model seems be about 2 to 3 ft overdone when
looking at the coastal buoys. As for the remainder of the
fcst...will gnrly follow guidance.
Warnings/forecast confidence...preliminary. Any changes will be
coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale overngt into Wed...hi
confdc. Gale Thu into Thu night...low confdc. Gale Sat...low to
MDT confdc.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale overngt into Wed
night...MDT to hi confdc.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...gale Wed night...low to MDT confdc.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.
.Forecaster banks/achorn. Ocean forecast branch.
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